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Real-life experiences tell us what the media-published data can’t or will not. Vaccinated people appear to be getting the coronavirus at a surprisingly high rate. But exactly how often isn’t clear, nor is it certain how likely they are to spread the virus to others. There’s growing concern that vaccinated people may be more vulnerable to serious illness than previously thought.

There’s a lack of scientific studies with sensible or reassuring answers. Some are renewing mask mandates or delaying business reopening’s, others cite the lack of clarity to justify staying the course. It is a mess.

‘We have to be humble about what we do know and what we don’t know,’ said Tom Frieden, a former director of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and the head of Resolve to Save Lives. ‘There are a few things we can say definitively. One is that this is a hard question to address.’

In an absence of clear public health messaging, vaccinated people are left confused about how to protect themselves. Just how vulnerable they are is a key variable. Not just for public health officials trying to figure out, say, when booster shots might be needed, but also to decide about whether to roll back re-openings amid the 109^th new variants of the virus. The unanswered questions leave life lovers unsure if it’s OK to see a concert and prompted a fresh round of hand-wringing among parents pondering what school is going to look like. 

What has emerged is a host of case studies providing somewhat different pictures of breakthrough infections. It’s difficult to know which data might ultimately carry more heft.

One of the best-known outbreaks among vaccinated people occurred in the small beach town of Provincetown, Massachusetts, as thousands of vaccinated and unvaccinated alike gathered on dance floors and at house parties over the Fourth of July weekend to celebrate the holiday. The event seemed like a turning point in the pandemic. Shockingly, about 75 percent of the 469 infections were among vaccinated people. 

Authors of a CDC case study said this might mean that they were just as likely to transmit Covid-19 as the unvaccinated. It is claimed by those clutching at straws that this one study was not sufficient to draw any conclusions. The incident prompted the media-sponsored CDC to reverse a recommendation it had issued just a few weeks earlier and once again urge the vaccinated to mask up in certain settings.

Still, the particular details of that cluster of cases may have made that outbreak especially bad, according to Gandhi. ‘The rate of mild outbreaks in this population was higher because of a lot of indoor activity (including intimacy), rain that weekend, not much outside time and a mixture of people with different vaccination status,’ she said in an email.

A newly released, far larger CDC case study of infections in New York state, meanwhile, found that the number of breakthrough infections has steadily ticked up since May, accounting for almost 4% of cases by mid-July. Those researchers cautioned that factors such as easing public health restrictions and the rise of the highly contagious delta variant might impact the results. 

Research out of Israel seems to back the idea that protection from severe disease wanes in the months after inoculation, and more recently, that breakthrough cases may eventually lead to an uptick in hospitalizations. The information is preliminary and severe breakthrough cases are still rare, but it bolsters the case that except for those who refuse to be vaccinated many vaccinated people will need profit-boosting booster shots in coming months.

Case studies and data from some states in the U.S. have similarly shown an increase in breakthrough cases over time. But with the delta variant also on the rise, it’s difficult to tell whether waning immunity to any type of coronavirus infection is to blame, or if the vaccinations are particularly ineffective against the delta variant. It could be both, of course. Changing behaviour among vaccinated people could be a factor, too, as they return to social gatherings and travel and dining indoors. But, if such people are vaccinated just HERE is the problem.  Source

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