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Why Marine le Pen’s bid for presidential office will fail

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In 1979, the British far-right anti-immigrant party National Front was poised to make massive gains in the general election. Tory Party contender Margaret Thatcher, (more migrants had poured into the UK under Conservative party office than Labour) then crucially made an anti-immigration speech that Enoch Powell would have applauded.

Millions of votes were re-directed from the National Front to the Conservative Party that had temporarily hijacked the National Front’s anti-migrant stance. Consequently, the Tory swept in – and so did millions of migrants.

It is known as ‘managed democracy’. Everyone in the National Rally (RN) understands that Marine Le Pen will never win the 2022 presidential election. Who says so? Popular conservative commentator Éric Zemmour in a Saturday interview with BFM TV.

Zemmour made the comment about Le Pen’s election prospect at a time when fears are now growing within conservative circles that Zemmour will enter the election and effectively split the National Rally vote in the first round of France’s federal elections.

In France, if a candidate does not win an outright majority in the first round, a second round of voting takes place in which the two candidates who received the most votes head to a run-off vote. Le Pen and Macron are widely seen as the two most likely contenders for the second run-off vote.

But if Zemmour, a cocky Israeli passport-holding Jewish spoiler enters the race for presidential election it will likely sabotage Le Pen’s chances. His entry will simply split the vote without his having any chance of electoral success.

Zemmour himself has long been keeping the French public in suspense regarding his potential run in the presidential election next year. Unlike Marine le Pen’s and her National Rally party, Zemmour is heavily promoted by French media. Before it hit the book store shelves his Amazon-promoted book, ‘France has not said its last word’ has already become a best-selling book on Amazon.

‘Marine Le Pen has a solid base,’ admitted Zemmour but added that as his opponent is ostracised by state media she has already lost five-percentage points in the polls. In a recent poll, Le Pen reached around 21 percent, while other polls published in recent months have attributed her 24 to 26 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, supporters of the press-promoted columnist celebrate the possibility that Zemmour will run for the post of president. Zemmour himself does not rule it out. If polls suggest Marine le Pen’s bid for presidency could succeed, Zemmour will throw his hat into the ring to split the conservative vote.

At the same time, the results of a private poll by Ipsos for centre-right presidential candidate Valérie Pécresse leaked to the Le Point news outlet. According to by Ipsos poll, Zemmour would gain 7 percent of votes if he ran so no chance of his electoral success.

Zemmour, who is Jewish, has seen a meteoric rise with the growing popularity of his media promoted television show, Face à l’Info, on the CNews television station. His show’s audience has grown by 1,000 percent since 2019, reaching 900,000 viewers, a substantial number for a country France’s size.

Zemmour’s possible candidacy weighs heavily on Le Pen, whom polls have so far favoured for making a clear advance to the second round along with incumbent President Emmanuel Macron.

She fears that Zemmour could split part of the votes she would need to get to the second round. Because of this, she even met this spring in Paris with her father and the founder of the National Front (RN’s predecessor), Jean-Marie Le Pen, with whom she has a poor relationship.

Jean-Marie Le Pen knows Zemmour and likes him. However, Marine Le Pen appealed to her father to persuade Zemmour not to run for the post. Jean-Marie Le Pen reportedly stated that he liked Zemmour as a commentator and thinker but was not suitable for the president. There you have it, stage managed democracy’ in one news story. If you like this story, share it with a friend!

Title image: French writer, politician and journalist Eric Zemmour speaks at the Convention of the Right, in Paris, Saturday, Sept. 28, 2019. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)

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