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A peaceful neighbour of Russia for 30 years, NATO provocations of Russia in Lithuania, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, and now Kazakhstan was rocked into chaos virtually overnight. It is claimed by the notorious Western media that the disquiet is the consequence of rising gas prices.
They claim that was the spark for nationwide protests spanning every latitude from top business hub Almaty to the Caspian Sea ports of Aktau and Atyrau and even the capital Nur-Sultan, formerly Astana. Gas prices have soared all over the Western world ~ no attempts to overthrow governments so what is going on in Kazakh?
Kazakhstan rich in natural resources and especially platinum ranks 9th in the largest countries index and is two-thirds the size of the United States. Yet another Washington DC sponsored colour revolution same as that of Ukraine (2014) is currently underway.
Everybody in Kazakhstan was expecting a price hike, as much as everybody in Kazakhstan uses liquefied gas, especially in their converted cars.
At first President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev seemed to have been caught in a deer facing the headlights situation. He promised the return of price caps, installed a state of emergency/curfew nationwide while accepting the current government’s resignation en masse and appointing a faceless Deputy Prime Minister, Alikhan Smailov, as interim PM until the formation of a new cabinet.
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Fail as it must when what is happening is a replay of Ukraine (2014), Syria, Libya, Egypt (2011) Belarus (2019). Kazakhstan is plunged into a foreign-backed insurrection. Kazakh airspace, meanwhile, had to contend with an extended traffic jam of private jets leaving for Moscow and Western Europe.
Even though the Kremlin noted that Nur-Sultan had not asked for any Russian help, a ‘special delegation’ was soon flying out of Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautiously stressed, ‘we are convinced that our Kazakh friends can independently solve their internal problems’, adding, ‘it is important that no one interferes from the outside.’
How could it all derail so fast? Tokayev did issue the proverbial call ‘not to succumb to internal and external provocations’ yet also assured that the government ‘will not fall’. Well, it was already falling, even after an emergency meeting trying to address the tangled web of problems with a promise that all ‘legitimate demands’ by the protesters will be met.
This did not play out as a classic regime change scenario. A competent political opposition is not apparent so there is no political exchange. The internet is down: Civil society has no channels to express itself.
Kazakhstan was the last republic to leave the collapsing USSR over three decades ago, in December 1991. The Chinese-driven New Silk Roads were officially launched by Xi Jinping at Nazarbayev University in September 2013.
That happened to swiftly dovetail with the Kazakh concept of Eurasian economic integration, crafted after Nazarbayev’s own government spending project, designed to turbo-charge the economy after the 2008-9 financial crisis.
In September 2015, in Beijing, Nazarbayev aligned Nurly Zhol with BRI, de facto propelling Kazakhstan to the heart of the new Eurasian integration order. Geo-strategically, the largest landlocked nation on the planet became the prime interplay territory of the Chinese and Russian visions, BRI and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).
For Russia, Kazakhstan is even more strategic than for China. Nur-Sultan signed the CSTO treaty in 2003. It’s a key member of the EAEU. Both nations have massive military-technical ties and conduct strategic space cooperation in Baikonur. Russian has the status of an official language, spoken by 51% of the republic’s citizens.
At least 3.5 million Russians live in Kazakhstan. It’s still early to speculate about a possible ‘revolution’ tinged with national liberation colours if the old system were to eventually collapse. And even if that happened, Moscow will never lose all of its considerable political influence.
So, the immediate problem is to assure Kazakhstan’s stability. Permanent destabilising chaos simply cannot be tolerated, and Moscow knows Washington DC’s playbook by heart. Another Maidan is out of the question; Putin will never allow it. The Belarus equation has shown how a strong hand can operate miracles. Tokayev called for the CSTO to intervene to restore order. There will be a military enforced curfew. And Nur-Sultan may even confiscate the assets of US and UK companies that are seemingly sponsoring the protests.
The usual destabilizing suspects are well known. They may not have the reach, the political influence, and the necessary number of Trojan horses to keep Kazakhstan on fire indefinitely. At least the Trojan horses themselves are being very explicit. They want an immediate release of all political prisoners; regime change; a provisional government of ‘reputable’ citizens; and, what else, ‘withdrawal of all alliances with Russia.’
And then it all gets down to the level of ridiculous farce, as the EU starts calling on Kazakh authorities to ‘respect the right to peaceful protests.’ As in allowing total anarchy, robbery, looting, hundreds of vehicles destroyed, attacks with assault rifles, ATMs and even the Duty-Free at Almaty airport completely plundered.
This analysis (in Russian) covers some key points, mentioning, ‘the internet is full of pre-arranged propaganda posters and memos to the rebels’ and the fact that ‘the authorities are not cleaning up the mess, as Lukashenko did in Belarus.’
The result will come later. It is usually the same. The elimination of sovereignty, external management and, finally, as a rule, the formation of an anti-Russian political party.’
Putin, Lukashenko and Tokayev spent a long time over the phone, at the initiative of Lukashenko. The leaders of all CSTO members are in close contact. A master game plan, as in a massive ‘anti-terrorist operation’, has already been hatched. Gen. Gerasimov will personally supervise it.
The whole Kazakh adventure is being sponsored by MI6 and the CIA to create a new Maidan right before the Russia/US-NATO talks in Geneva and Brussels next week, to prevent any kind of agreement. Significantly, the ‘rebels’ maintained their national coordination even after the internet was disconnected.
The second source is more nuanced: the usual suspects are trying to force Russia to back down against the collective West by creating a major distraction in their Eastern front, as part of a rolling strategy of chaos all along Russia’s borders. That may be a clever diversionary tactic, but Russian military intel is watching. Closely. And for the sake of the usual suspects, this better may not be interpreted, ominously, as a war provocation. Source
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Categories: Current Events